Still charging your EV like it’s 2018? Here’s the lithium reality check America needed.

The internet loves a big number, and the latest one is eye-popping: a reported $1.5 trillion worth of lithium in the McDermitt Caldera straddling Nevada and Oregon. Headlines promise cheaper EVs, bigger batteries, and energy independence. But will a clay-hosted mega deposit actually make your next EV or grid battery cheaper? Short answer: not overnight. Longer answer: it depends on extraction, refining, permitting, and manufacturing scaling on a 3 to 7 year clock.

The relatable problem

Battery buyers have whiplash. Lithium prices spiked in 2022, fell hard in 2023 to 2024, and are wobbling again in 2025, while EV pack prices keep sliding but not as fast as you hoped. Supply chains are scattered across continents. And the U.S. still imports most of its refined lithium chemicals, which means our cell makers live by global commodity mood swings.

The new idea, explained simply

If the U.S. can bring the McDermitt Caldera’s lithium into production and pair it with domestic refining and cell manufacturing, we get fewer supply shocks and a tighter cost range for EV and grid batteries. But clay-hosted lithium is not brine. It’s mined, crushed, chemically leached, and refined, which takes time, water, energy, and robust environmental safeguards. That means timelines matter more than headlines.

What’s actually in the ground?

• Peer-reviewed research points to exceptional grades in illite-rich claystones at Thacker Pass within the McDermitt Caldera. Illite layers can reach 4 to 8 weight percent lithium, far above typical clay deposits, due to hydrothermal enrichment after the caldera formed, as detailed in this Science Advances study and further explored in GSA Geology.
• Explorers cite massive potential across the caldera. Jindalee’s McDermitt project reports a JORC Mineral Resource of 21.5 Mt LCE with a maiden Probable Ore Reserve of 2.34 Mt LCE and a 63-year life, per company disclosures on its operations page.
• Media coverage rounding up estimates often cites 20 to 40 million metric tons of lithium in the broader caldera, with breathless valuations near $1.5 trillion. Treat those dollar figures as directional, not destiny, since they depend on long-run price, recovery, and cost assumptions noted by various outlets and university summaries, including University of Nevada Reno and Phys.org.

Thacker Pass: the near-term bellwether

• Construction began in 2023 and is progressing, with engineering reported >80 percent complete in 2025 and first steel in place, according to project updates and an analyst tour deck by Lithium Americas. See the project overview and recent materials here and here (PDF).
• Bechtel, the EPC contractor, references federal support and highlights Thacker Pass’s significance to U.S. supply in its project page.
• Phase 1 is designed for roughly 40,000 tonnes per year of battery-quality lithium carbonate, with subsequent phases contemplated to lift capacity further. A realistic start of production target sits in the late-2020s based on current construction timelines, per the company’s materials cited above.
• Environmental and tribal concerns remain material. Thacker Pass has faced lawsuits, cultural resource debates, and permitting scrutiny. A concise background is maintained on Wikipedia’s project page, and ongoing discourse is covered by regional outlets such as Sierra Nevada Ally.

Extraction, refining, and why clay is different

Clay-hosted lithium is mined in open pits, then processed via crushing, grinding, and chemical leaching to yield battery-grade lithium carbonate or hydroxide. Compared with brine, this is generally more energy- and reagent-intensive, and it elevates the importance of water management and tailings. The geological basis for why McDermitt’s clays are unusually rich is explained in this study.

The bottleneck no one can ignore: refining

Even if mined domestically, lithium chemicals must be refined to battery grade at scale. The U.S. remains constrained here, though activity is picking up. USGS is tracking lithium development and mapping tools relevant to domestic planning, as noted in this USGS feature. Companies have announced hydroxide projects and expansions, including Albemarle, Livent, Piedmont, and a Texas refinery plan by Tesla outlined here. Whether these hit timeline, budget, and throughput targets will largely determine how fast mined clay converts into usable battery chemicals in the U.S.

So... will EV and grid batteries get cheaper?

• Pack prices are already falling. BloombergNEF reports global pack prices hit a record low of $115/kWh in 2024, driven by lower raw material costs, LFP adoption, and manufacturing scale, with a continued slide expected in 2025. See BNEF’s analysis here and longer-term outlook here.
• Critical minerals outlook remains supportive. The IEA projects ongoing cost pressure relief as supply diversifies and scales, though volatility persists. Their 2025 perspective is summarized in this report.
• Lithium prices are volatile, but no longer at 2022 extremes. Spot prices tumbled through 2023 to 2024 and showed signs of stabilizing and modest rebound in 2025, per market trackers like Fastmarkets and S&P Global Commodity Insights.
• Domestic cell and BESS manufacturing is ramping. IRA-era projects are proliferating, with new factories targeting 2024 to 2027 startups. An overview of projects and incentives is compiled on DOE’s IRA tracker, while broader capacity outlooks are covered by BNEF.

Translation: what the McDermitt find could do

• Price floor, not instant discount: More domestic supply can stabilize lithium input costs, but dramatic EV price drops hinge more on manufacturing scale, chemistry mix, and learning curves than a single mine. The 2024 pack price data from BNEF backs that up here.
• Resilience beats speculation: A proven, permitted, and financed domestic chain from mine to hydroxide/carbonate to cells and packs reduces exposure to overseas bottlenecks and policy shocks, as emphasized in the IEA’s minerals outlook here.
• Timeline is the real gatekeeper: Even with a head start at Thacker Pass, late-2020s production is the realistic window. Company updates here and EPC commentary here place major production well after current EV model cycles.

Environmental and social realities

Clay-hosted lithium mining requires careful water use, chemical handling, and tailings management, all under close regulatory scrutiny. Tribal and local community engagement is not optional. While the geology is world-class, projects must earn their social license and environmental permits step by step, as reflected in the public record summarized on Wikipedia and regional reporting such as this overview.

What to watch next

• Permitting milestones and community agreements at Thacker Pass and neighboring claims across the McDermitt Caldera.
• Groundbreaking, financing, and commissioning progress for U.S. refining plants (Albemarle, Livent, Piedmont, Tesla and others).
• Offtake contracts and federal support mechanisms that de-risk first production.
• Quarterly battery pack price updates from BNEF and lithium market signals from Fastmarkets and S&P Global.

Bottom line

The McDermitt Caldera discovery is a big deal for lithium mining USA. It could anchor a domestic supply chain, smooth price swings, and support the ramp in U.S. cell and BESS manufacturing. But the impact on EV battery prices will be evolutionary, not explosive. Cheap batteries come from scaled, efficient manufacturing and diversified, predictable supply. This discovery helps on the latter. The former is already in motion.