Still betting your battery on merchant roulette? There is a smarter way.

The National Electricity Market rewards speed and flexibility, but financing a grid battery purely on spot and FCAS upside is like funding a stadium with hot dog sales. Ampyr Australia just pointed to the playbook that is actually getting deals done: lock in long-duration storage offtakes and let a specialist trader ride the volatility.

Enter Bulabul. Ampyr’s 300 MW/600 MWh Bulabul battery in New South Wales has secured a 15-year storage agreement with Danish trader InCommodities, a deal widely reported at around AU$300 million. It is a textbook example of how tolling-style battery contracts are maturing in Australia to swap near-term merchant noise for bankable cashflows as covered here, with further details noted by Blackridge Research and EcoNews.

The problem: merchant volatility is not a financing strategy

Australian batteries have proven they can make real money from revenue stacking, but the mix is lumpy and timing is unforgiving. FCAS prices can be feast or famine. Arbitrage spreads wax and wane with rooftop PV and coal exits. That is great for a trading desk, less so for non-recourse project finance.

AEMO’s Quarterly Energy Dynamics consistently shows batteries earning from a blend of energy arbitrage plus contingency and regulation FCAS, with Very Fast FCAS adding a useful new slice since its launch in 2021 as tracked in QED and in AEMO’s VFFCAS launch. But lenders want contracted cashflows, not just a great backtest.

The solution: long-term storage offtakes and tolling-style contracts

The Bulabul structure reflects a broader shift toward contracting the battery as a service. Instead of the owner trying to time every 5-minute interval, an offtaker pays for access to capacity and takes the market risk within agreed operating limits.

• Tolling model - the offtaker pays a fixed or indexed capacity reservation, may pay throughput fees, and controls dispatch rights within agreed cycling and warranty limits.
• Revenue floor with upside share - a minimum guaranteed payment to the owner with shared upside above a hurdle. This has appeared in Australian deals such as Bouldercombe, where Genex entered a 10-year revenue support arrangement with Tesla to de-risk early years as Genex disclosed.
• Network or system services contracts - long-term availability payments for critical grid services, like the Victorian Big Battery’s SIPS arrangement that underwrites summer system integrity while leaving the asset free to play in NEM markets outside the obligation window per Neoen and WattClarity’s explainer, with AEMO noting the operational role here.

Policy is also pushing in the same direction. New contracting frameworks like the federal Capacity Investment Scheme and NSW’s Long Term Energy Service Agreements create floor-and-ceiling style revenue support that complements private offtakes as outlined by the Commonwealth and by NSW.

What Bulabul’s 15-year deal tells us

• Tenor is stretching - 10 to 15 years is becoming the new normal for contracted storage, aligning with warranty and augmentation plans.
• Traders are stepping up - specialist houses with algorithmic bidding and FCAS expertise are natural offtakers. InCommodities brings trading and risk management that many owners do not want to internalise as reported.
• Bankability improves - contracted capacity payments convert volatile merchant revenue into predictable cashflows that can support lower cost debt. Public reporting pegs Bulabul’s agreement at roughly AU$300 million in value across the term here.

How the revenue stack works under an offtake

Even with an offtake, the battery is ultimately monetised through multiple services. The difference is who holds which risks and rights.

• Energy arbitrage - charge during low prices and discharge during peaks. Dispatch rights typically sit with the offtaker, subject to cycle and degradation constraints.
• FCAS - regulation, contingency and very fast services can be substantial revenue contributors. Offtakers with strong bidding capability tend to capture more of this stack per AEMO QED.
• Network and system support - where available, contracts like SIPS add an availability-based layer that reduces revenue variance as WattClarity details.

Risk allocation in today’s NEM battery contracts

• Price and basis risk - typically transferred to the offtaker. Some deals include sharing above a strike.
• Degradation and warranty - owner retains OEM warranty management; contracts cap annual cycles and include make-whole for degradation beyond plan.
• Availability and performance - the owner guarantees capacity and response within agreed KPIs, with liquidated damages for shortfalls.
• Grid and connection - owner usually bears MLF, constraint and outage risks up to defined carve-outs. Change-in-law provisions protect both sides.
• Augmentation - pre-agreed augmentation schedule and efficiency floors ensure the contracted capacity stays deliverable over the term.

A developer’s playbook for structuring similar deals

• Know your service mix - model revenue by segment and seasonality using recent AEMO data so the contract allocates rights where value concentrates see QED.
• Match contract tenor to warranty - align 10-15 year terms with augmentation budgets and round-trip efficiency trajectories.
• Set clear operating envelopes - cycle caps, SOC windows, and temperature bands tied to OEM warranty conditions.
• Blend public support where available - layer CIS or LTESA-style floors with a private offtake to compress downside volatility CIS and NSW LTESA.
• Bank-grade provisions - step-in rights for lenders, availability guarantees, change-in-law, curtailment carve-outs, and settlement transparency.
• Pick an offtaker with a track record - demonstrated FCAS accreditation, proven bidding platform, 24/7 desk, and a balance sheet to back it.

Bottom line

Bulabul signals the next phase of Australia’s storage market: long-duration offtakes that make batteries financeable at scale while letting professional traders monetise volatility. If you are developing or backing a grid battery in the NEM, the fastest route from investment memo to FID likely runs through a 10-15 year contract that gets the risk in the right hands.

That is not playing it safe. It is playing it smart.