Still budgeting your 2026 projects like battery prices are stuck in 2022? That is the procurement equivalent of racing slicks in a snowstorm.

What just changed: the 8% drop that matters

BloombergNEF’s latest survey shows average lithium-ion battery pack prices fell 8% year over year in 2025 to about $108/kWh, even with metals costs drifting higher. The short story is overcapacity and ruthless competition are doing more work than commodities are undoing, especially out of China, as noted in this coverage and in BNEF’s report.

• LFP vs NMC pricing: BNEF’s 2025 split has LFP packs at roughly $81/kWh and NMC around $128/kWh, reinforcing LFP’s cost lead in both EV base trims and stationary storage, per BNEF.
• Regional spread: China remains the price floor, with pack costs cited well below North America and Europe due to scale and intense competition, as summarized by RenewEconomy and Energy-Storage.news.
• Grid-specific plunge: BNEF’s data also indicates grid-focused battery pack pricing fell on the order of 45% year over year, a tailwind for utility-scale BESS, per this summary.
• EV pack dynamics: Battery packs for BEVs are approaching the symbolic $100/kWh mark in the most competitive segments, which tightens the screws on ICE parity in certain markets, as noted in this report.

The problem: volatile inputs, whiplash budgets

Developers and fleet buyers have spent two years dodging supply-chain curveballs. Metals volatility, tariffs, localization rules, and warranty bankability have made it hard to translate headline cell prices into project realities. EV shoppers feel it too when MSRP swings do not match the buzz about “cheaper batteries.”

The solution: price relief with nuance

The 2025 pack-price slide is real, but the pass-through is uneven. Here is how it flows through 2026 decisions:

• EVs: Pack costs are often 30-40% of an EV’s bill of materials. An 8% pack-price drop can translate to roughly 2-3% vehicle-cost relief, before tariffs, incentives, and content rules. Expect more value packed into base trims rather than blanket MSRP cuts. Source context in BNEF and industry coverage.
• Solar+storage: Grid pack prices tracked by BNEF have fallen sharply for utility applications. Storage adders in PPAs should keep sliding through 2026 as integrators refresh quotes and inventories cycle, though BOS, interconnection, and financing still dominate many sites. See RenewEconomy.
• Standalone BESS: The steep pack deflation improves LCOS and augmentation math, especially for 2- to 4-hour systems. Expect more aggressive merchant exposure and tolling bids as integrators lock in lower container and cell pricing. Summaries from Energy-Storage.news.

LFP vs NMC in 2026: choose by duty cycle, not dogma

• Stationary storage: LFP is the default for price, safety, and calendar life. Pick NMC only where extreme footprint constraints or lower-temperature performance outweigh cost.
• EVs: LFP fits cost-sensitive, standard-range cars and high-utilization fleets that prize cycle life. NMC remains the tool for long range, performance variants, and colder climates. Pricing in 2025 reinforces that split, per BNEF.

How much savings will actually show up?

• Automakers: Expect selective MSRP cuts, leasing incentives, and feature upgrades rather than across-the-board reductions, as OEMs protect margins while transitioning platforms. Coverage in EV Infrastructure News.
• Developers and IPPs: Installed BESS costs will not fall one-for-one with pack prices. BOS, labor, and financing rates matter, but 2025-2026 RFPs should clear meaningfully lower than 2023 peaks, aided by the grid-pack plunge noted by RenewEconomy and broader BNEF data.

Procurement playbook for 2026 builds

• Mix chemistries: Use LFP for base-range EVs and most BESS. Reserve NMC where energy density or cold performance truly pays back.
• Lock optionality, not just price: Write volume-tied options for 2026 with floors and collars. Include change-order rules for chemistry swaps if tariffs or metals bite.
• Index smartly: Tie a portion of pack pricing to transparent lithium and nickel indices. Combine with FX hedges if you buy in USD but sell in local currency.
• Dual-source by region: Pair a Tier 1 China supply line with a secondary NA or EU line to manage policy risk and content requirements. Include performance LDs and bankable warranties.
• Standardize skids and controls: Containerize and standardize EMS/BMS interfaces so you can pivot vendors without redoing the plant design.
• Book slots early: Bid with 2025-H2 cell capacity reservations that convert to 2026 deliveries, subject to spec checks and QA gates.

2026 outlook: glide path, not free fall

BNEF points to a modest further step-down in 2026, on the order of a few percent, assuming competitiveness continues to offset metals and policy friction, as noted in this summary and BNEF’s survey. Translation: price tailwinds should persist, but smart contracts will determine who pockets them.

Bottom line

Battery prices are finally doing what your spreadsheets always wanted. For buyers, 2026 is a window to lock value while keeping flexibility. For sellers, it is time to differentiate on integration, warranties, and uptime, not just cell price. Either way, let the overcapacity era work for you, not against your margins.

Sources

• BloombergNEF 2025 Battery Price Survey and summaries: BNEF, Energy-Storage.news, RenewEconomy, EV Infrastructure News.